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RMI Research Seminar

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 Complexity in Factor Pricing Models
Date: 14 April 2023 (Friday)
Time: 2:00pm to 3:15pm
Venue: I³ Building, 21 Heng Mui Keng Terrace Level 4 Executive Seminar Room

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Abstract

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(joint work with Antoine Didisheim, Barry Ke, and Bryan Kelly)

We theoretically characterize the behavior of machine learning asset pricing models.  We prove that expected out-of-sample model performance---in terms of SDF Sharpe ratio and average pricing errors---is improving in model parameterization (or ``complexity'').  Our results predict that the best asset pricing models (in terms of expected out-of-sample performance) have an extremely large number of factors (more than the number of training observations or base assets).  Our empirical findings verify the theoretically predicted ``virtue of complexity'' in the cross-section of stock returns and show that models with tens of thousands of factors significantly outperform simpler alternatives. We derive the {\it feasible Hansen-Jagannathan (HJ) bound}: The maximal out-of-sample Sharpe ratio achievable by a feasible portfolio strategy. The infeasible HJ bound grossly overstates the achievable maximal Sharpe ratio due to a {\it complexity wedge} that we characterize.

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About the Speaker

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Semyon
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Semyon Malamud is an SFI Associate Professor at the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne. He has held an SFI Senior Chair since November 2015. He joined SFI in 2007 and has held an SFI Junior Chair since 2010. He obtained his Ph.D. in mathematics from ETH Zurich. Prof. Malamud is an associate editor of the Journal of Finance and is a regular speaker at leading academic conferences worldwide. His papers have been published in the top journals in finance and economics.

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